Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Calculate safe withdrawal rate and portfolio sustainability. See historical success rates at different SWR levels.

By Konstantin Iakovlev · Updated September 2026 · Source: Morningstar — What's a Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026?

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Time Horizon

Your Withdrawal Rate

4.00%

Historical Success Rate

95%

Monthly Income at 4.00%

$3,333.33

Annual Income at Various Withdrawal Rates (30-Year Horizon)

3.0% SWR — 100% success$30,000.00/yr ($2,500.00/mo)
3.5% SWR — 99% success$35,000.00/yr ($2,916.67/mo)
4.0% SWR — 95% success$40,000.00/yr ($3,333.33/mo)
4.5% SWR — 87% success$45,000.00/yr ($3,750.00/mo)
5.0% SWR — 78% success$50,000.00/yr ($4,166.67/mo)

Portfolio After 30 Years at Fixed Real Returns

At a 9% real return$7,324,669.79
At a 5% real return$1,531,510.78
At a 2% real return$156,183.95
At a -1% real returnDepleted

About Safe Withdrawal Rates

  • The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% in year one, then adjusting for inflation.
  • Historical success rates are based on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.
  • 3.5% or lower is generally considered very safe for 30+ year horizons.
  • Consider lowering your rate if you have a longer time horizon or want more security.

Use the Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator above to calculate your results. Enter your values and see instant results — all calculations run in your browser.

Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute tax, financial, or legal advice. Results are estimates based on the information you provide and current rates. Always consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor for advice specific to your situation.

How It Works

The central retirement question is how much you can pull from your portfolio each year and still not outlive your money. That figure, your safe withdrawal rate, or SWR, anchors a sound retirement plan. Get it right and your savings stretch across the whole retirement.

Behind the scenes, the tool does not run its own simulation: it looks up approximate historical success rates for a 60/40 stock and bond portfolio in the style of the Trinity Study, which tested inflation-adjusted withdrawals across overlapping past market periods, and shows the rate for your withdrawal percentage and retirement horizon. It puts the well-known '4% rule' to the test and lets you experiment with variations to see how each SWR fared across past economic climates.

One caveat worth holding onto: what markets did before is no promise of what they'll do next, and conditions can turn without warning. Inflation quietly erodes purchasing power over a long retirement, and while the calculator already factors that in, it's worth grasping why it matters. Leave yourself a buffer for surprise expenses and downturns, and stay ready to adjust your withdrawals if your circumstances or the markets move sharply.

Example: $1,000,000 Portfolio, $40,000 a Year, 30 Years

  1. 1 Input: a $1,000,000 portfolio, $40,000 of annual spending and a 30-year horizon. The withdrawal rate is $40,000 ÷ $1,000,000 = 4.0%.
  2. 2 The calculator looks up its table of approximate historical success rates for a 60/40 portfolio: 4.0% over 30 years shows 95%. For the same horizon it lists 3% at 100%, 3.5% at 99%, 4.5% at 87% and 5% at 78%, paying $30,000, $35,000, $45,000 and $50,000 a year.
  3. 3 The scenario table takes $40,000 out at the start of each year and grows the rest at a fixed real return. After 30 years a 9% real return leaves about $7,324,670, 5% about $1,531,511 and 2% about $156,184, while at −1% the portfolio shows as depleted. The returns are after inflation, so these balances are in today's dollars.
  4. 4 A 95% historical success rate means that in most, but not all, past 30-year periods of this kind, a $40,000 withdrawal raised each year for inflation would have lasted. It is a record of the past, not a probability for the next 30 years, and switching the horizon to 40 years drops the same 4% to 88%.

Source: Morningstar — What's a Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026? · Last updated: September 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 4% rule for retirement?
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of not running out of money over 30 years. A $1 million portfolio supports $40,000/year in withdrawals.
Is the 4% rule still valid in 2026?
Morningstar's research published in December 2025 puts the highest safe starting withdrawal rate for a new retiree at 3.9%, for a 30-year retirement with 30% to 50% in stocks and a 90% chance of money left at the end. Its estimates for earlier years ranged from 3.3% (2021) to 4.0% (2023). Retirees with shorter horizons, or who can cut spending after bad years, can start higher.
What safe withdrawal rate should I use for early retirement?
For retirements lasting 40-50 years, a 3-3.5% withdrawal rate provides better long-term safety. A $1 million portfolio at 3.5% supports $35,000/year; this calculator's table puts 3.5% at about 96% historical success over 40 years, its longest horizon.

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